Federal tax policy and the capitalization of local public goods

This study examines the connection between federal tax policies and the capitalization of local public goods into housing prices, focusing on the deduction of State and Local Taxes (SALT). In the United States, taxpayers can deduct taxes paid to local jurisdictions from their federal taxable incomes, effectively reducing the net cost of local public goods. We develop a theoretical model of local public goods capitalization that predicts a higher capitalization of public goods in jurisdictions with a greater share of residents who deduct local taxes. We test this prediction by exploiting local exposure to national fiscal changes from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in a shift-share instrumental variable framework. Using school district spending, we find empirical support that a higher share of residents deducting property taxes causes a greater capitalization of local public spending. In particular, a one-standard-deviation increase in school spending corresponds to a 1.2% decrease in house value in school districts where no resident deducts property taxes but to a 2.8% rise in values in districts where 25% of the residents take advantage of the property tax deduction. Our results thus emphasize the importance of the interaction between local and national policies when evaluating the optimal level of local public good provision, and provide guidance for evaluating the future of the SALT deductions.