Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence

K. A. Reed, A. M. Stansfield, M. F. Wehner, C. M. Zarzycki

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

58 Scopus citations


Changes in extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, are one of the most serious ways society experiences the impact of climate change. Advance forecasted conditional attribution statements, using a numerical model, were made about the anthropogenic climate change influence on an individual tropical cyclone, Hurricane Florence. Mean total overland rainfall amounts associated with the forecasted storm’s core were increased by 4.9 ± 4.6% with local maximum amounts experiencing increases of 3.8 ± 5.7% due to climate change. A slight increase in the forecasted storm size of 1 to 2% was also attributed. This work reviews our forecasted attribution statement with the benefit of hindsight, demonstrating credibility of advance attribution statements for tropical cyclones.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbereaaw9253
JournalScience Advances
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 1 2020

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General


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