Forecasting production from bakken and three forks wells using a segregated flow model

The Williston basin is one of the largest sources of oil production in the continental United States.. It has over 10,000 producing wells completed in the Bakken and Three Forks formations. Wells in the Williston basin produce significant volumes of water, with first year water cuts averaging 36 percent. We show some indication that water and oil take separate flow paths to the hydrofracture network, following segregated flow. Applying the segregated flow assumption simplifies reservoir simulation and decline analysis models. Using this assumption, we perform production decline analysis on these wells using a physics-based flow model, which provides estimates of the time to boundary dominated flow and connected and stimulated reservoir volume for each well. From this analysis, we estimate ultimate oil, gas, and water recoveries for each well. These estimates are used to compare wells drilled in different formations and geographic locations and at different times. Finally we provide a look back on previous predictions using this tool and provide and error analysis.