Forecasting the Rising Economical Impact of Tropical Storms

As the disastrous effects of impending climate change become a reality, there have been many attempts to quantify the expected damages to the economy. It is difficult to know for certain how people and businesses will adapt to the dramatic changes in climate and the exact cost of these adaptations. By examining the economic repercussions of extreme weather events and factoring in forecasted future climate trends, the future damages and their effect on households and businesses in vulnerable areas can be estimated. In the past 20 years, several hurricanes that hit the coastal US and have caused hundreds of billions of dollars in damage. Using public records provided by governmental organizations such as FEMA and the Census Bureau about populations affected by hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Sandy, and Harvey, an assessment of average recovery cost can be estimated. Using recovery cost data over time and current economic conditions, the long-term trend in expected damage was calculated, and it was found that economic growth and over-development have the strongest correlation with trends in increased damages.