Forecasting travel patterns using palmore’s cohort analysis

Lori Pennington-Gray, Deborah L. Kerstetter, Rod Warnick

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

20 Scopus citations


The purpose of this study was to introduce Palmore’s (1978) method of cohort analysis and illustrate its potential application to tourism forecasting. Results suggested that (a) older cohorts participate less frequently in international travel than younger cohorts, (b) decrease in participation continues as one ages, and (c) changes in travel behavior are due primarily to period effects. With respect to the impact these findings may have on the tourism industry, the results suggest that marketers should monitor the aggregate changes taking place within targeted cohorts, and strategic planning should not be based on an assessment of differences between cohorts at one point in time.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)125-143
Number of pages19
JournalJournal of Travel and Tourism Marketing
Issue number1-2
StatePublished - Nov 1 2002

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management
  • Marketing


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