Foresighting needs for secure societies “2035”: Scenario-based approaches to futuristic European Union policies as a comprehensive security provider

Following the Lisbon Treaty and the evolution of its strategic posture, the European Union (EU) is pursuing a global security agenda, at the same time establishing itself as a comprehensive security provider, enhancing, supporting, and coordinating Member State civil security programmes and capabilities. Based on main findings from the EU security research project FOCUS, this chapter presents problem space descriptions and planning scenarios for assessing and managing security risks in a 2035 time frame to support future roles of the EU as a security provider to its citizens–addressing both home-affairs and cross-border challenges within a global context. Planning dimensions include policy, strategy, and technology as well as supporting security research. A future EU as a comprehensive security provider able to manage an evolving riskscape will combine development of capabilities with responsiveness to societal security needs.