Four-Year Loneliness Trajectory and Its Predictors in Older Adults

Background and Objectives Loneliness is a modifiable risk factor for health decline in older adults and its level may change over time. This study aimed to explore how loneliness changes across 4 years in older adults and investigate potential between-person and within-person predictors of this trajectory. Research Design and Methods Using growth curve modeling, we analyzed data collected annually between 2017 and 2020 from 128 older adults (M_age = 77.91) in independent-living or retirement communities. Results A quadratic model best fit the loneliness trajectory, showing loneliness decreased first and then increased over 4 years. At baseline, social relationship factors and health status, especially depressive symptoms, were correlated with the level of loneliness. None of the baseline variables had significant associations with the linear rate of change in loneliness. Increases in depressive symptoms and decreases in physical functioning were separately related to an increased level of loneliness. A secondary analysis showed the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic influenced the rate of change in loneliness. Discussion and Implications Findings suggest the loneliness trajectory for older adults follows a nonlinear trend, and that within-person variability exists in this trajectory. Social relationships and health indicators contribute to the trajectory of loneliness, and depressive symptoms were the most salient predictor of change in loneliness. The COVID-19 pandemic also influenced the uptick in loneliness in 2020. More attention and support should be offered to older adults who are less socially connected or experience health declines, to prevent loneliness and thus increase the healthy longevity of our older population.