Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High-Resolution Global Warming Experiment

Christine A. Shields, Ashley E. Payne, Eric Jay Shearer, Michael F. Wehner, Travis Allen O’Brien, Jonathan J. Rutz, L. Ruby Leung, F. Martin Ralph, Allison B. Marquardt Collow, Paul A. Ullrich, Qizhen Dong, Alexander Gershunov, Helen Griffith, Bin Guan, Juan Manuel Lora, Mengqian Lu, Elizabeth McClenny, Kyle M. Nardi, Mengxin Pan, Yun QianAlexandre M. Ramos, Tamara Shulgina, Maximiliano Viale, Chandan Sarangi, Ricardo Tomé, Colin Zarzycki

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

11 Scopus citations


Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale weather features important for Earth’s hydrological cycle typically transporting water vapor poleward, delivering precipitation important for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is problematic because the AR response to climate change is tied to how the feature is defined. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides insights into this problem by comparing 16 atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) to a common data set consisting of high resolution climate change simulations from a global atmospheric general circulation model. ARDTs mostly show increases in frequency and intensity, but the scale of the response is largely dependent on algorithmic criteria. Across ARDTs, bulk characteristics suggest intensity and spatial footprint are inversely correlated, and most focus regions experience increases in precipitation volume coming from extreme ARs. The spread of the AR precipitation response under climate change is large and dependent on ARDT selection.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere2022GL102091
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Issue number6
StatePublished - Mar 28 2023

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • General Earth and Planetary Sciences

Cite this