Global climate change and tropical cyclones

This paper offers an overview of the authors' studies during a specialized international symposium (Mexico, 22 November-1 December 1993) where they aimed at making an objective assessment of whether climate changes, consequent on an expected doubling of atmospheric CO₂ in the next six or seven decades, are likely to increase significantly the frequency of intensity of tropical cyclones (TC). Out of the three methodologies available for addressing the question they employ two, discarding the third for reasons set out in the appendix. The authors conclude that, even though the possibility of some minor indirect effects of global warming on TC frequency and intensity cannot be excluded, they must effectively be "swamped' by large natural variability. -from Authors