Global critical soil moisture thresholds of plant water stress

During extensive periods without rain, known as dry-downs, decreasing soil moisture (SM) induces plant water stress at the point when it limits evapotranspiration, defining a critical SM threshold (θ_crit). Better quantification of θ_crit is needed for improving future projections of climate and water resources, food production, and ecosystem vulnerability. Here, we combine systematic satellite observations of the diurnal amplitude of land surface temperature (dLST) and SM during dry-downs, corroborated by in-situ data from flux towers, to generate the observation-based global map of θ_crit. We find an average global θ_crit of 0.19 m³/m³, varying from 0.12 m³/m³ in arid ecosystems to 0.26 m³/m³ in humid ecosystems. θ_crit simulated by Earth System Models is overestimated in dry areas and underestimated in wet areas. The global observed pattern of θ_crit reflects plant adaptation to soil available water and atmospheric demand. Using explainable machine learning, we show that aridity index, leaf area and soil texture are the most influential drivers. Moreover, we show that the annual fraction of days with water stress, when SM stays below θ_crit, has increased in the past four decades. Our results have important implications for understanding the inception of water stress in models and identifying SM tipping points.