Graduating With an Alcohol Problem? Associations Between Drinking, Willingness to Experience Consequences, Protective Behavioral Strategies, and Repeated Alcohol Problems Across the Senior Year of College

OBJECTIVE: Research shows that a high proportion of college seniors experience alcohol problems repeatedly. The present study examined associations between behavioral willingness to experience alcohol consequences, protective behavioral strategies (PBS) to reduce harmful drinking, drinking, and repeated alcohol problems (RAP) early in the senior year, and how these constructs influenced behavioral willingness, PBS, drinking, and RAP later in the senior year. METHOD: The sample included randomly selected first-year students from a large northeastern university who met the inclusion criterion of consuming alcohol before enrollment. Students were followed each semester across 4 years. The study (N = 1,753; 58% female) focused on the assessments in the fall (Time 1 [T1]) and spring (T2) semesters of their senior year (mean age = 21). A longitudinal path model examined associations among behavioral willingness, PBS, drinking, and RAP at both waves. RESULTS: Behavioral willingness, drinking, and PBS had direct, concurrent associations with RAP at T1 and T2. The nature of the associations was positive for behavioral willingness and drinking and negative for PBS. Prospective analyses revealed significant independent, positive associations between T1 RAP and T2 behavioral willingness, drinking, and RAP, whereas a negative independent association between T1 RAP and PBS was observed at T2. CONCLUSIONS: Findings show evidence for a cycle of alcohol use behavior between behavioral willingness, drinking, and RAP. Based on the findings, interventions targeting college seniors seem warranted to reduce the development of further alcohol problems in adulthood.