Historical land policies influence contemporary landscape patterns in agropastoral landscapes

Context: Historical land use policies can have enduring impacts on contemporary patterns of land use. However, the role of legacy land use policies on contemporary patterns of land use has been understudied especially in agropastoral landscapes that support the livelihoods of millions of people globally. Objectives: In this study, we investigated four distinct historical land policy trajectories in agropastoral landscapes in Narok County, southern Kenya, and how they have shaped spatial patterns of land use over more than four decades. Methods: A spatially explicit historical land use policy map was used to guide comparisons of land change beginning with a landscape baseline (circa 1974) derived from historical aerial photographs as well as a time series of Landsat-derived maps (1990, 2000, 2010, 2018). Results: Results showed that post-colonial land tenure policies differentially influenced the pace and patterns of land use transitions across the landscape. Collectively, private ownership was associated with large reductions of forest (− 96%) and rangelands (− 40%) due to the expansion of croplands (+ 60%), especially after 2010. In the initial years, forest and rangeland fragmentation coincided with areas under privatization policies, whereas group ranches tended to exhibit greater homogenization alongside the disappearance of small forest patches. In the recent years, private lands become increasingly homogeneous as cropland aggregate while group ranches become fragmented following cropland expansion. Conclusions: The changes in spatial patterns affect livelihoods of agropastoralists, either by modifying habitat availability or movement that supports adaptive capacity during periods of stress. Because policy legacies continue to shape land use trajectories and patterns, the study suggests that integrating policy analysis into landscape ecological research is critical for interpreting contemporary landscape services.