Hysteresis Model of Permafrost Thermal State Variation with Air Temperature in Utqiaġvik, Alaska, Based on Distributed Temperature Sensing

Increasing air temperatures are driving permafrost warming across the Arctic and sub-Arctic. This in turn degrades the geomechanical properties of soils, disrupts the natural environment and infrastructure systems, and results in long-lasting societal impacts. Understanding the thermal state of degrading permafrost in the Arctic is crucial for maintaining resilient infrastructure in the changing Arctic. This study employs Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) to monitor permafrost temperature near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, from 2021 to 2024. Fiber-optic DTS sensors have unique and attractive characteristics that allow their deployment in the Arctic for low-maintenance, cost-effective, and high-resolution data. This paper presents the temperature recordings of a 2-km DTS system on the tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, by the Elson Lagoon. A hysteresis model is developed to link permafrost temperature with air temperature, incorporating meteorological data and ground surface conditions. The study also explores the impact of civil infrastructure on permafrost thermal dynamics.