TY - JOUR
T1 - Identifying age cohorts responsible for peste des petits ruminants virus transmission among sheep, goats, and cattle in northern Tanzania
AU - Herzog, C. M.
AU - de Glanville, W. A.
AU - Willett, B. J.
AU - Cattadori, I. M.
AU - Kapur, V.
AU - Hudson, P. J.
AU - Buza, J.
AU - Swai, E. S.
AU - Cleaveland, S.
AU - Bjørnstad, O. N.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in global sheep and goat populations. To better control this disease and inform eradication strategies, an improved understanding of how PPRV transmission risk varies by age is needed. Our study used a piece-wise catalytic model to estimate the age-specific force of infection (FOI, per capita infection rate of susceptible hosts) among sheep, goats, and cattle from a cross-sectional serosurvey dataset collected in 2016 in Tanzania. Apparent seroprevalence increased with age, reaching 53.6%, 46.8%, and 11.6% (true seroprevalence: 52.7%, 52.8%, 39.2%) for sheep, goats, and cattle, respectively. Seroprevalence was significantly higher among pastoral animals than agropastoral animals across all ages, with pastoral sheep and goat seroprevalence approaching 70% and 80%, respectively, suggesting pastoral endemicity. The best fitting piece-wise catalytic models merged age groups: two for sheep, three for goats, and four for cattle. The signal of these age heterogeneities were weak, except for a significant FOI peak among 2.5–3.5-year-old pastoral cattle. The subtle age-specific heterogeneities identified in this study suggest that targeting control efforts by age may not be as effective as targeting by other risk factors, such as production system type. Further research should investigate how specific husbandry practices affect PPRV transmission.
AB - Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in global sheep and goat populations. To better control this disease and inform eradication strategies, an improved understanding of how PPRV transmission risk varies by age is needed. Our study used a piece-wise catalytic model to estimate the age-specific force of infection (FOI, per capita infection rate of susceptible hosts) among sheep, goats, and cattle from a cross-sectional serosurvey dataset collected in 2016 in Tanzania. Apparent seroprevalence increased with age, reaching 53.6%, 46.8%, and 11.6% (true seroprevalence: 52.7%, 52.8%, 39.2%) for sheep, goats, and cattle, respectively. Seroprevalence was significantly higher among pastoral animals than agropastoral animals across all ages, with pastoral sheep and goat seroprevalence approaching 70% and 80%, respectively, suggesting pastoral endemicity. The best fitting piece-wise catalytic models merged age groups: two for sheep, three for goats, and four for cattle. The signal of these age heterogeneities were weak, except for a significant FOI peak among 2.5–3.5-year-old pastoral cattle. The subtle age-specific heterogeneities identified in this study suggest that targeting control efforts by age may not be as effective as targeting by other risk factors, such as production system type. Further research should investigate how specific husbandry practices affect PPRV transmission.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85079305871&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85079305871&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/v12020186
DO - 10.3390/v12020186
M3 - Article
C2 - 32046120
AN - SCOPUS:85079305871
SN - 1999-4915
VL - 12
JO - Viruses
JF - Viruses
IS - 2
M1 - 186
ER -