Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013

Tim Brown; Le Bao; Jeffrey W. Eaton; Daniel R. Hogan; Mary Mahy; Kimberly Marsh; Bradley M. Mathers; Robert Puckett

doi:10.1097/QAD.0000000000000454

Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013

Tim Brown, Le Bao, Jeffrey W. Eaton, Daniel R. Hogan, Mary Mahy, Kimberly Marsh, Bradley M. Mathers, Robert Puckett

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

40 Scopus citations

Abstract

Objective: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden.

Methods:

Results: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data.

Conclusion: Spectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	S415-S425
Journal	AIDS
Volume	28
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000000454
State	Published - Nov 11 2014

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Immunology and Allergy
Immunology
Infectious Diseases

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1097/QAD.0000000000000454

Cite this

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title = "Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013",

abstract = "Objective: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden.Methods:Results: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data.Conclusion: Spectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning.",

author = "Tim Brown and Le Bao and Eaton, {Jeffrey W.} and Hogan, {Daniel R.} and Mary Mahy and Kimberly Marsh and Mathers, {Bradley M.} and Robert Puckett",

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day = "11",

doi = "10.1097/QAD.0000000000000454",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "28",

pages = "S415--S425",

journal = "AIDS",

issn = "0269-9370",

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T1 - Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013

AU - Brown, Tim

AU - Bao, Le

AU - Eaton, Jeffrey W.

AU - Hogan, Daniel R.

AU - Mahy, Mary

AU - Marsh, Kimberly

AU - Mathers, Bradley M.

AU - Puckett, Robert

PY - 2014/11/11

Y1 - 2014/11/11

N2 - Objective: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden.Methods:Results: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data.Conclusion: Spectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning.

AB - Objective: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden.Methods:Results: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data.Conclusion: Spectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning.

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VL - 28

SP - S415-S425

JO - AIDS

JF - AIDS

ER -

Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013

Abstract

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

UN SDGs

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