Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

T. A. O’Brien, M. F. Wehner, A. E. Payne, C. A. Shields, J. J. Rutz, L. R. Leung, F. M. Ralph, A. Collow, I. Gorodetskaya, B. Guan, J. M. Lora, E. McClenny, K. M. Nardi, A. M. Ramos, R. Tomé, C. Sarangi, E. J. Shearer, P. A. Ullrich, C. Zarzycki, B. LoringH. Huang, H. A. Inda-Díaz, A. M. Rhoades, Y. Zhou

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

43 Scopus citations

Abstract

The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere2021JD036013
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Volume127
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 27 2022

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Space and Planetary Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Atmospheric Science

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