Intelligent Transport Systems: Revolutionary Threats and Evolutionary Solutions

In the coming half-century, the global transport industry is expected to be affected by two technological revolutions - the first will start upon admission of autonomous vehicles to public roads, while the second will finalize a complete removal of manned vehicles away from them. As a result of the above revolutionary shocks, several major changes are anticipated: the modification of whole paradigm of ground vehicles; introduction of new business models in the transport sector, as well as new vehicle ownership forms; transition to technologies of collective and cooperative management and synchronized parrying the dangerous traffic collisions. The paper defines the major goals of intelligent transport systems development for the next decade, namely: creation of highly adaptable mechatronic modules and systems, accumulation of knowledge about the variability of road situations and creation of dangerous situations scenarios; development of methods for evaluating and proving the safety of the autonomous control; and implementation of a harmonized reform of the international property and technical regulations with respect to autonomous vehicles. Proper understanding the inevitability of changes followed by foresight of the technology development and related challenges will allow not only to avoid a chain of industry crises, typical for any revolution and accompanied by losses and bankruptcies, but also to transform both revolutions to a smooth evolutionary process.