Intercounty Variability of Net Migration at Older Ages as a Path-Dependent Process

This article seeks to identify factors associated with the formation and development of nonmetropolitan destinations for older in-migration, thereby explaining why some U.S. counties are more likely than others to be nonmetro retirement destinations. We contend that most nonmetro retirement destinations are established and developed over time through a path-dependent process. When amenities are commodified as recreation and tourism, migration streams tend to be established that ultimately produce sustained in-migration of older persons to selected destination communities. We use data from a variety of official sources and a spatial statistics methodology to examine intercounty variability in net migration rates at ages 60-74. Our findings are consistent with the aforementioned path-dependent development framework. Counties with a long history of population growth, previous experience attracting older in-migrants, attractive natural amenities, and a developed recreation and tourism industry are those most likely to be retirement-age migration destinations. In contrast, agricultural heartland and relatively large population size are associated with lower rates of older in-migration. Older in-migration should be seen as neither a panacea for strapped rural communities nor a "pensions and care issue." Older migrants can be "gray gold," but they can also pose challenges, such as possibly increased demand for public services as they age in place.