International business cycles: World, region, and country-specific factors

M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, Charles H. Whiteman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

567 Scopus citations


The paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business-cycle fluctuations across countries, regions, and the world. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common components in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) in a 60-country sample covering seven regions of the world. The results indicate that a common world factor is an important source of volatility for aggregates in most countries, providing evidence for a world business cycle. We find that region-specific factors play only a minor role in explaining fluctuations in economic activity. We also document similarities and differences across regions, countries, and aggregates.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1216-1239
Number of pages24
JournalAmerican Economic Review
Issue number4
StatePublished - Sep 2003

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics and Econometrics


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