Investigation of Favorable Conditions in Superhot Rock Geothermal Wells Based on Techno-Economic Studies

Geothermal energy represents a growing component of the global renewable portfolio, with 16,318 MW installed capacity across 32 countries by 2023. Superhot rock (SHR) geothermal resources, characterized by temperatures exceeding 375℃, offer exceptional energy density but face commercialization challenges due to limited field data and high subsurface uncertainty. This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic analysis of SHR geothermal systems using IDDP-2 well data from Iceland. Monte Carlo simulations treat key reservoir parameters-depth, formation temperature, thickness, and area-as probabilistic variables to quantify uncertainty in recoverable heat estimation. Techno-economic modeling evaluates levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) across varying operational scenarios. Results demonstrate that deeper wells (4.5 km vs. 2 km) reduce LCOE by 67% while increasing power output five-fold. Higher flow rates (55-130 kg/s) decrease costs from 5.52 to 3.54 ¢/kWh. Monte Carlo analysis estimates recoverable energy at 75.81-138.01 MWt (P90-P10), with reservoir dimensions identified as the most critical parameters. This integrated uncertainty and economic framework provides quantitative guidance for SHR geothermal development and investment decisions.