Lessons in disguise: Multivariate predictive mistakes in collective choice models

Bruce A. Desmarais

doi:10.1007/s11127-011-9767-1

Lessons in disguise: Multivariate predictive mistakes in collective choice models

Bruce A. Desmarais

Political Science

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Many political processes can be characterized as repeated collective decisions, in which individual choices rendered by the same actors are combined to produce salient outcomes (e.g., voting in legislatures). The inherent interdependence among the choices within repeated collective decisions is often missed in statistical analysis. I introduce the joint prediction error (JPE)-a grouping of individual decisions that is poorly predicted by a model. JPEs capture the intersecting information missed by conventional diagnostics. I demonstrate the use of JPEs on data from two published articles-one on U. S. Supreme Court voting and another on international defense alliances.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	719-737
Number of pages	19
Journal	Public Choice
Volume	151
Issue number	3-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-011-9767-1
State	Published - Jun 2012

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Sociology and Political Science
Economics and Econometrics

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10.1007/s11127-011-9767-1

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title = "Lessons in disguise: Multivariate predictive mistakes in collective choice models",

abstract = "Many political processes can be characterized as repeated collective decisions, in which individual choices rendered by the same actors are combined to produce salient outcomes (e.g., voting in legislatures). The inherent interdependence among the choices within repeated collective decisions is often missed in statistical analysis. I introduce the joint prediction error (JPE)-a grouping of individual decisions that is poorly predicted by a model. JPEs capture the intersecting information missed by conventional diagnostics. I demonstrate the use of JPEs on data from two published articles-one on U. S. Supreme Court voting and another on international defense alliances.",

author = "Desmarais, {Bruce A.}",

note = "Funding Information: Acknowledgements This work was supported in part by the American Politics Research Group, Department of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and by the College of Social and Behavioral Sciences at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. Without implicating, I would like to thank Tom Carsey, Jim Stimson, Skyler Cranmer, Isaac Unah, Kevin McGuire, Jeff Harden and Justin Kirkland for helpful feedback on this research. Also, the anonymous reviewers{\textquoteright} and editors{\textquoteright} comments and suggestions were very helpful. Copyright: Copyright 2011 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

year = "2012",

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doi = "10.1007/s11127-011-9767-1",

language = "English (US)",

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journal = "Public Choice",

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AB - Many political processes can be characterized as repeated collective decisions, in which individual choices rendered by the same actors are combined to produce salient outcomes (e.g., voting in legislatures). The inherent interdependence among the choices within repeated collective decisions is often missed in statistical analysis. I introduce the joint prediction error (JPE)-a grouping of individual decisions that is poorly predicted by a model. JPEs capture the intersecting information missed by conventional diagnostics. I demonstrate the use of JPEs on data from two published articles-one on U. S. Supreme Court voting and another on international defense alliances.

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Lessons in disguise: Multivariate predictive mistakes in collective choice models

Abstract

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