TY - JOUR
T1 - Longwave emission trends over Africa and implications for Atlantic hurricanes
AU - Zhang, Lei
AU - Rechtman, Thomas
AU - Karnauskas, Kristopher B.
AU - Li, Laifang
AU - Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
AU - Kossin, James P.
N1 - Funding Information:
The 20CRv2c data are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD from their web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. Support for the 20CRv2c data set is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research, and by the NOAA Climate Program Office. J.P.D., K.B.K., and L.Z. Acknowledge support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) (RC-2336). SERDP is the environmental science and technology program of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Publisher Copyright:
©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2017/9/16
Y1 - 2017/9/16
N2 - The latitudinal gradient of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Africa is a skillful and physically based predictor of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. The African OLR gradient is observed to have strengthened during the satellite era, as predicted by state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Prior to the satellite era and the U.S. and European clean air acts, the African OLR gradient weakened due to aerosol forcing of the opposite sign. GCMs predict a continuation of the increasing OLR gradient in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Assuming a steady linear relationship between African easterly waves and tropical cyclogenesis, this result suggests a future increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency by 10% (20%) at the end of the 21st century under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) forcing scenario.
AB - The latitudinal gradient of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Africa is a skillful and physically based predictor of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. The African OLR gradient is observed to have strengthened during the satellite era, as predicted by state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Prior to the satellite era and the U.S. and European clean air acts, the African OLR gradient weakened due to aerosol forcing of the opposite sign. GCMs predict a continuation of the increasing OLR gradient in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Assuming a steady linear relationship between African easterly waves and tropical cyclogenesis, this result suggests a future increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency by 10% (20%) at the end of the 21st century under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) forcing scenario.
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U2 - 10.1002/2017GL073869
DO - 10.1002/2017GL073869
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85028974141
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 44
SP - 9075
EP - 9083
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 17
ER -
