Mid-winter temperatures, not spring temperatures, predict breeding phenology in the European starling Sturnus vulgaris

Tony D. Williams, Sophie Bourgeon, Allison Cornell, Laramie Ferguson, Melinda Fowler, Raime B. Fronstin, Oliver P. Love

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

39 Scopus citations


In many species, empirical data suggest that temperatures less than 1 month before breeding strongly influence laying date, consistent with predictions that short lag times between cue and response are more reliable, decreasing the chance of mismatch with prey. Here we show in European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) that mid-winter temperature ca 50–90 days before laying (8 January–22 February) strongly (r2 =0.89) predicts annual variation in laying date. Mid-winter temperature also correlated highly with relative clutch size: birds laid later, but laid larger clutches, in years when mid-winter temperatures were lower. Despite a high degree of breeding synchrony (mean laying date 5–13 April=±4 days; 80% of nests laid within 4.8 days within year), European starlings show strong date-dependent variation in clutch size and productivity, but this appears to be mediated by a different temporal mechanism for integration of supplemental cue (temperature) information. We suggest the relationship between mid-winter temperature and breeding phenology might be indirect with both components correlating with a third factor: temperature-dependent development of the starling’s insect (tipulid) prey. Mid-winter temperatures might set the trajectory of growth and final biomass of tipulid larvae, with this temperature cue providing starlings with information on breeding season prey availability (though exactly how remains unknown).

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number140301
JournalRoyal Society Open Science
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 2015

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General


Dive into the research topics of 'Mid-winter temperatures, not spring temperatures, predict breeding phenology in the European starling Sturnus vulgaris'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this