Modeling behavioral activities related to IED perpetration

This paper presents a computational approach to modeling the behavioral aspects of IED perpetration that enables the exploration of those behaviors by an analyst or planner. The modeling framework presented supports the identification of potential interdiction points in the events leading to an IED detonation with a focus on insurgent recruitment and on the motivation to construct, emplace, and detonate IEDs. In many cases, individuals become terrorists or supporters of terrorism through a slow and gradual process wherein established terrorists use targeted approaches to convert individuals into terrorists through phases. Because of this phased approach, a strategic means of quelling terrorism involves understanding the process and exploiting insights to disrupt the IED process at an early stage. Knowledge engineering is used to extract and capture domain knowledge which is then represented in a system dynamics model to support the exploration and identification of behaviors associated with adversarial activities. Interchangeable submodels are used to capture subtleties or differing opinions and to allow for the analysis of expected results of alternative decisions or courses of action.