TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021
AU - Borchering, Rebecca K.
AU - Viboud, Cécile
AU - Howerton, Emily
AU - Smith, Claire P.
AU - Truelove, Shaun
AU - Runge, Michael C.
AU - Reich, Nicholas G.
AU - Contamin, Lucie
AU - Levander, John
AU - Salerno, Jessica
AU - Panhuis, Wilbert Van
AU - Kinsey, Matt
AU - Tallaksen, Kate
AU - Obrecht, R. Freddy
AU - Asher, Laura
AU - Costello, Cash
AU - Kelbaugh, Michael
AU - Wilson, Shelby
AU - Shin, Lauren
AU - Gallagher, Molly E.
AU - Mullany, Luke C.
AU - Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin
AU - Lemaitre, Joseph C.
AU - ScM, Juan Dent
AU - Grantz, Kyra H.
AU - Kaminsky, Joshua
AU - Lauer, Stephen A.
AU - Lee, Elizabeth C.
AU - Meredith, Hannah R.
AU - Perez-Saez, Javier
AU - Keegan, Lindsay T.
AU - Karlen, Dean
AU - Chinazzi, Matteo
AU - Davis, Jessica T.
AU - Mu, Kunpeng
AU - Xiong, Xinyue
AU - Piontti, Ana Pastore Y.
AU - Vespignani, Alessandro
AU - Srivastava, Ajitesh
AU - Porebski, Przemyslaw
AU - Venkatramanan, Srinivasan
AU - Adiga, Aniruddha
AU - Lewis, Bryan
AU - Klahn, Brian
AU - Outten, Joseph
AU - Schlitt, James
AU - Corbett, Patrick
AU - Telionis, Pyrros Alexander
AU - Wang, Lijing
AU - Peddireddy, Akhil Sai
AU - Hurt, Benjamin
AU - Chen, Jiangzhuo
AU - Vullikanti, Anil
AU - Marathe, Madhav
AU - Healy, Jessica M.
AU - Slayton, Rachel B.
AU - Biggerstaff, Matthew
AU - Johansson, Michael A.
AU - Shea, Katriona
AU - Lessler, Justin
N1 - Funding Information:
All authors have completed and submitted the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors form for disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. Katriona Shea reports receipt of two National Science Foundation (NSF) COVID-19 RAPID awards, and a Huck Institutes of the Life Sciences Coronavirus Research Seed Grant. Rebecca Borchering reports funding from an NSF COVID-19 RAPID award. Katharine Tallaksen, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Laura Asher, Luke C. Mullany, Molly E. Gallagher, Matt Kinsey, Richard F. Obrecht, and Lauren Shin report funding from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. Matteo Chinazzi reports grants from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE), and Metabiota to Northeastern University. Ana Pastore y Piontti reports funding from Metabiota, Inc. to Northeastern University and royalties from Springer Publishing. Joseph Lemaitre reports funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation, State of California, HHS, and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Kyra H. Grantz reports support from the California Department of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, NIH, and travel support from the World Health Organization (WHO). Elizabeth Lee and Claire Smith report support from the California Department of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Health System, HHS, and DHS, and computing resources from Amazon Web Services, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, and the Office of the Dean at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Justin Lessler reports support from DHHS, DHS, California Institute of Technology, NIH, honorarium from the American Association for Cancer Research, personal fees for expert testimony from Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, LLP. Lindsay Keegan reports support from the State of California, and NIH, a University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, and Infectious Disease Seed Grant, and a scholarship from the University of Washington Summer Institute in Statistics and Modeling of Infectious Diseases. Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, and Willem Gijsbert van Panhuis report a National Institute of General Medical Sciences grant. Ajitesh Srivastava reports a grant from the National Science Foundation. Michael C. Runge reports stock ownership in Becton Dickinson & Co., which manufactures medical equipment used in COVID testing, vaccination, and treatment. Alessandro Vespignani reports grants from NIH, NSF, WHO, CSTE, Metabiota Inc., Templeton Foundation, Scientific Interchange Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; royalties from Cambridge University Press, World Scientific, Springer Publishing, and Il Saggiatore; consulting fees from Human Technopole Foundation, Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, honorarium for lecture module at University of Washington; Scientific Advisory Board member of the Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, Italy, Supervisory Board member of the Human Technopole Foundation, Italy; and gifts to Northeastern University from the McGovern Foundation, the Chleck Foundation, the Sternberg Family, J. Pallotta, and Google Cloud research credits for COVID-19 from Google. Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Pyrros A. Telionis, Anil Vullikanti, Jiangzhuo Chen, Benjamin Hurt, Brian D. Klahn, Bryan Lewis, James Schlitt, Joseph Outten, Lijing Wang, Madhav Marathe, Patrick Corbett, Przemyslaw Porebski, and Srinivasan Venkatramanan report institutional support from the National Science Foundation, Expeditions, NIH, the U.S. Department of Defense, Virginia Department of Health, Virginia Department of Emergency Management, University of Virginia (internal seed grants), and Accuweather. No other potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January-March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout of a large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with the spread of more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 (1,3) and relaxation of COVID-19 prevention strategies such as those for businesses, large-scale gatherings, and educational activities. To provide long-term projections of potential trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub teams used a multiple-model approach comprising six models to assess the potential course of COVID-19 in the United States across four scenarios with different vaccination coverage rates and effectiveness estimates and strength and implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (public health policies, such as physical distancing and masking) over a 6-month period (April-September 2021) using data available through March 27, 2021 (4). Among the four scenarios, an accelerated decline in NPI adherence (which encapsulates NPI mandates and population behavior) was shown to undermine vaccination-related gains over the subsequent 2-3 months and, in combination with increased transmissibility of new variants, could lead to surges in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. A sharp decline in cases was projected by July 2021, with a faster decline in the high-vaccination scenarios. High vaccination rates and compliance with public health prevention measures are essential to control the COVID-19 pandemic and to prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months.
AB - After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January-March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout of a large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with the spread of more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 (1,3) and relaxation of COVID-19 prevention strategies such as those for businesses, large-scale gatherings, and educational activities. To provide long-term projections of potential trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub teams used a multiple-model approach comprising six models to assess the potential course of COVID-19 in the United States across four scenarios with different vaccination coverage rates and effectiveness estimates and strength and implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (public health policies, such as physical distancing and masking) over a 6-month period (April-September 2021) using data available through March 27, 2021 (4). Among the four scenarios, an accelerated decline in NPI adherence (which encapsulates NPI mandates and population behavior) was shown to undermine vaccination-related gains over the subsequent 2-3 months and, in combination with increased transmissibility of new variants, could lead to surges in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. A sharp decline in cases was projected by July 2021, with a faster decline in the high-vaccination scenarios. High vaccination rates and compliance with public health prevention measures are essential to control the COVID-19 pandemic and to prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months.
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U2 - 10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3
DO - 10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3
M3 - Article
C2 - 33988185
AN - SCOPUS:85105904575
SN - 0149-2195
VL - 70
SP - 719
EP - 724
JO - Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
JF - Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
IS - 19
ER -