Narratives of Regret: How Anticipated Regret and Counterfactual Thinking Can Promote COVID-19 Vaccination Intentions in Unvaccinated Adults

Previous research has identified the potential for narratives to motivate health behavior change. The present study examines the effects of narratives highlighting counterfactual thinking about what could have been, alongside overt emotional expressions of regret. These narratives may encourage vaccine-hesitant audiences to pursue vaccination even after other health messaging approaches (e.g. providing facts, emphasizing disease threat, fostering empathy for those at higher risk) have been less effective for these particular individuals. A between-subjects online experiment (N = 411) conducted in August and September of 2022 with unvaccinated U.S. residents employed stimuli featuring exemplars who expressed regret for what happened to a family member who refused a COVID-19 vaccine. Two experimental conditions varied in the level of explicit salience of the exemplars’ counterfactual thinking and were compared to an information-only COVID-19 vaccination news story and a control news story. For those who had previously resisted COVID-19 vaccination, our results point to the importance of counterfactual thinking to spark feelings of regret that also predict stronger vaccine intentions. Moreover, the results suggest some limitations for narrative effects via empathy amongst this subpopulation.