Nonstationarity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation's Fingerprint on Sea Surface Temperature

Sea surface temperature (SST) has been increasing since industrialization with rising greenhouse gases. However, a warming hole exists in the North Atlantic where SST has cooled by 0.4 K/century during 1900–2017. It has been argued that this cooling is due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and subpolar North Atlantic SST has thus been utilized to estimate AMOC variability. We assess the robustness of subpolar North Atlantic SST as a proxy for AMOC strength under historical forcing, abrupt quadrupling of CO₂, and a medium future emissions pathway, finding that AMOC's fingerprint on SST depends upon forcing scenarios. AMOC is important in warming hole development during significant warming periods, although SST may introduce uncertainties for AMOC reconstruction in stabilized regimes due to diverse forcing mechanisms and decadal variability. Our results caution against using SST alone as a proxy for AMOC variability—both on paleoclimatic and contemporary time scales.