Nuclear Arms Reductions after New START: Incremental or Transformative?

Ratification of the New START agreement by the United States and Russia opens the door to further progress as between Moscow and Washington on strategic nuclear arms reductions. As well, fulfillment of New START requirements and post-New START agreements will add credibility to Russian and American claims for international leadership on nuclear nonproliferation. New START also helps to clear the way for progress on the larger Obama denuclearization agenda, including ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and an international agreement to regulate production of fissile materials. However, nothing is guaranteed in politics, including arms control politics, and New START could backslide on account of U.S.-Russian disagreements over missile defenses, NATO enlargement or other issues.