Nuclear Danger in Asia: Arms Races or Stability?

The arrival of the third nuclear age pulls down the curtain over several past decades of relative strategic nuclear stability and constrained proliferation. Nuclear weapons spread in Asia, as well as the growth in size of nuclear arsenals by acknowledged nuclear weapons states with interests in Asia, presents compelling challenges to the USA, Russia, China, and other major powers. Among these challenges will be the limitation of both numerical growths in the sizes of weapons arsenals and the qualitative changes in nuclear delivery systems of various ranges. As well, present non-nuclear states in Asia may seek to acquire their own nuclear arsenals. This study examines the possibility of an eight-sided nuclear arms competition in strategic Asia and models some of the pertinent outcomes for their impacts on political and military stability. Among other challenges and complexities, the combination of advanced command–control systems for conventional and nuclear deterrence, hypersonic offensive weapons and cyber war will increase the cognitive complexity of nuclear crisis management and, therefore, raise the likelihood of inadvertent escalation or war.