Numeracy about minority populations: Americans' estimations of local gay population size

Previous research on demographic innumeracy has consistently shown that Americans have grossly inflated perceptions of minority population sizes at the national level. We present data from a survey indicating that Americans have significantly more reasonable estimations of homosexuals populations in their local communities. We argue that such findings serve as a needed corrective to the view that Americans are hopelessly ignorant about minority communities, speculate on some of the reasons for the disparate results at the national and local levels, and - after examining some of the correlates of the local estimates - discuss what these findings imply about the differing types and levels of "threat" the public views on the part of different minority groups.