Ontology-based knowledge representation for product life cycle concepts and obsolescence forecasting

The impact and pervasiveness of product obsolescence are increasing due to rapidly advancing technologies which shorten the lives of high-technology components. For long field-life systems, this has led to an increasing disparity in the life cycle of components as compared to the life cycle of the overall system. This disparity is challenging since obsolescence dates of components are important to product life cycle planning. While proposed obsolescence forecasting methods have demonstrated some effectiveness, obsolescence management is a continuing challenge since current methods are very difficult to integrate with other tools and lack clear, complete, and consistent information representation. This paper presents a framework to support the needs of knowledge representation for obsolescence forecasting. Product life cycle models are represented using the logic of ontological constructs. The forecasted life cycle curve and zone of obsolescence are obtained by fitting sales data. The knowledge representation for obsolescence forecasting is realized using OWL and SWRL in the ontology editor Protégé. A flash memory example is included to demonstrate the obsolescence forecasting procedure. Discussion of future work is included to extend the ontology beyond the initial representation for obsolescence forecasting, to a more comprehensive knowledge representation scheme and management system that can facilitate information sharing and collaboration for obsolescence management.