Optimal cholera vaccine allocation policies in developing countries: A case study

Owing to the ongoing civil war, healthcare and sanitation systems have been destroyed, and the routine immunization activities have been interrupted in the country under consideration. In particular, around 70% of the population are under cholera threat according to World Health Organization. In addition to the improvement of hygiene and sanitation, and better access to clean and safe water, an effective allocation of oral cholera vaccines could help to prevent the spread of cholera. In this study, a mixed integer programming model is developed to identify the optimal number of cholera vaccines that need to be distributed for different age groups and regions based on the risk level of age groups and the population of regions. The objective is to maximize the percentage of individuals vaccinated against cholera while considering limited vaccine quantities constraint. Different vaccine allocation policies that consider age, population, and both age and population are used to allocate vaccine quantities among several age groups and regions. These policies are compared in terms of the number of individuals got vaccinated and the total vaccination cost. Based on findings, to opt among these policies, the decision makers should trade off between maximizing the population that should be vaccinated and minimizing the total vaccination cost.