Orbitally-paced coastal sedimentary records and global sea-level changes in the early Permian

Orbital forcing affects climate system by regulating the amount of solar radiation received at the Earth's surface, which is vital for global hydrological cycles. However, a systematic understanding of the global water cycle with synergistic changes in ice sheets and sea levels under orbital forcing during the late Paleozoic ice age (LPIA) remains elusive. Here, we perform cyclostratigraphic analysis and sedimentary noise modeling for coastal sedimentary records (Well Greer #2 in the Permian Basin) from the early Permian and two sets of high-resolution paleoclimate simulation experiments using the Community Earth System Model. We provide the first high-resolution absolute astronomical time scale for the Permian Basin, which suggests that the timing of the early Permian Lower Leonard and Upper Wolfcamp Formations range from 286.29 ± 0.55 Ma to 289.05 ± 0.55 Ma, and the Lower Wolfcamp Formation ranges from 292.97 ± 0.16 Ma to 298.9 ± 0.15 Ma, respectively. In addition, we find a coupled phase relationship between high sea levels and eccentricity maxima, suggesting that eccentricity may have played a critical role in the early Permian sea-level oscillations. Paleoclimate simulations show that eccentricity and obliquity maxima lead to an overall increase in global mean temperature. Significant changes in surface temperature at middle to high latitudes are manifested as the polar amplification effect during the LPIA. Compared with obliquity, eccentricity leads to higher annual and summer variability in global surface temperature, and enhanced polar amplification results in ice retreat and sea-level rise. Evidence from Earth system modeling elucidates the phase relationship between orbital cycles and sea levels. Therefore, eccentricity, as the leading driving force in low latitudes, may dominate climate changes in the Earth's climate system and regulates global hydrological cycles during the LPIA.