Out-Migration from the Northeast US: The relative roles of economic and amenity differentials

Out-migration from the Northeast US: the relative roles of economic and amenity differentials Martin Shields, Stephan J. Goetz and Quiyan Wang INTRODUCTION Population growth in a number of Northeast states and sub-state regions has long been stagnant. While the US population grew by 38 percent since 1970, the Northeast’s population (61.57 million) grew only 11 percent over this period. This is consistent with long-term trends. Since 1950 the Northeast’s population increased by just 39 percent, while the US has grown by 86 percent. In 1950 the region was home to 36 percent of the US population. By 2000 its share dropped to 22 percent. This has a number of implications, including a threat to future economic activity and the vitality and fiscal resources of certain communities that result from a brain drain of youth coupled with an aging population, as well as the region’s loss of seven congressional seats from 1950 to 2000. One of the most important causes of this relative decline in population is a substantial net out-migration from the region. According to the US Census Bureau (US Department of Commerce 2003) migration data, from 1995 to 2000, 1 840 542 people moved into the region, while 3 124 294 left the Northeast, resulting in a net loss of 1 283 752 people. The region’s in-migration rate was 31.1 people per 1000 residents, versus the national state average of 45.7. Noting the severity of this problem, policy-makers across the region have established policies.