Palivizumab prophylaxis to prevent respiratory syncytial virus mortality after pediatric bone marrow transplantation: A decision analysis model

OBJECTIVE: Palivizumab, a monoclonal antibody against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), has been demonstrated to be safe and effective in young children, but evidence is lacking as to whether palivizumab is effective in preventing RSV-induced morbidity and mortality in children who are immunosuppressed after bone marrow transplantation (BMT). As a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial is lacking, we chose to examine this issue with the use of decision analysis methodology. METHODS: A decision tree was designed to determine mortality from RSV-related lung disease in children who received palivizumab after BMT. Probabilities were derived by meta-analysis methodology on the basis of the available literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed across a broad range of biologically plausible probabilities to judge the robustness of the results of the model. RESULTS: The model revealed that there is a 10% increase in survival in BMT patients who receive palivizumab. The absolute survival rate increased from 83% to 92%. A practitioner would need to treat 12 children to save 1 post-BMT child from dying from RSV-related lung disease. CONCLUSIONS: Decision analysis modeling demonstrates a decrease in mortality in pediatric BMT patients with the addition of palivizumab to protect against RSV-related lung disease. A well-designed, randomized controlled trial is necessary.