TY - JOUR
T1 - Parallel evolution and response decision method for public sentiment based on system dynamics
AU - Xie, Tian
AU - Wei, Yao yao
AU - Chen, Wei fan
AU - Huang, Hai nan
N1 - Funding Information:
The paper is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71974090 ); Young Foundation of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71501087 ); Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province of China (No. 2018JJ2336 ); Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province of China (No. 18YBQ105 ); Youth talents support program of Hunan Province of China ( 2018HXQ03 ); Hunan Education Department Excellent youth Project (No. 17B236 ); State Scholarship Fund ( 201808430055 ) from CSC; and Social Science Key Breeding Project of USC ( 2018XZX16 ); Doctoral scientific research foundation of USC (No. 2013XQD27 ); and Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province of China ( 19YBQ093 ). The authors would like to thank Krista Chen for contributing to this work.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2020/12/16
Y1 - 2020/12/16
N2 - Governments face difficulties in policy making in many areas such as health, food safety, and large-scale projects where public perceptions can be misplaced. For example, the adoption of the MMR vaccine has been opposed due to the publicity indicating an erroneous link between the vaccine and autism. This research proposes the “Parallel Evolution and Response Decision Framework for Public Sentiments” as a real-time decision-making method to simulate and control the public sentiment evolution mechanisms. This framework is based on the theories of Parallel Control and Management (PCM) and System Dynamics (SD) and includes four iterative steps: namely, SD modelling, simulating, optimizing, and controlling. A concrete case of an anti-nuclear mass incident that sparked public sentiment in China is introduced as a study sample to test the effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition, the results indicate the effects by adjusting the key control variables of response strategies. These variables include response time, response capacity, and transparency of the government regarding public sentiment. Furthermore, the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method will be analyzed to determine how it can be used by policy makers in predicting public opinion and offering effective response strategies.
AB - Governments face difficulties in policy making in many areas such as health, food safety, and large-scale projects where public perceptions can be misplaced. For example, the adoption of the MMR vaccine has been opposed due to the publicity indicating an erroneous link between the vaccine and autism. This research proposes the “Parallel Evolution and Response Decision Framework for Public Sentiments” as a real-time decision-making method to simulate and control the public sentiment evolution mechanisms. This framework is based on the theories of Parallel Control and Management (PCM) and System Dynamics (SD) and includes four iterative steps: namely, SD modelling, simulating, optimizing, and controlling. A concrete case of an anti-nuclear mass incident that sparked public sentiment in China is introduced as a study sample to test the effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition, the results indicate the effects by adjusting the key control variables of response strategies. These variables include response time, response capacity, and transparency of the government regarding public sentiment. Furthermore, the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method will be analyzed to determine how it can be used by policy makers in predicting public opinion and offering effective response strategies.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.05.025
DO - 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.05.025
M3 - Article
C2 - 32834432
AN - SCOPUS:85086161487
SN - 0377-2217
VL - 287
SP - 1131
EP - 1148
JO - European Journal of Operational Research
JF - European Journal of Operational Research
IS - 3
ER -