Past Experiences and Investment Decisions: Evidence from Real Estate Markets

Brent W. Ambrose, Lily Shen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Scopus citations


This paper investigates how market participants form risk perspectives through a sequence of information shocks. Guided by a theoretical Bayesian learning model, we exploit a natural experiment afforded by the fracking boom in Pennsylvania in the late-2000s. We empirically examine whether familiarity with historical conventional gas explorations affects the willingness to pay for houses near fracking wells. We find the local real estate market is very efficient with participants rapidly collecting and processing market–relevant new information. We also find that participants discount historical events and rely on current information to estimate the risk of a change in market conditions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)300-326
Number of pages27
JournalJournal of Real Estate Finance and Economics
Issue number2
StatePublished - Feb 2023

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Accounting
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Urban Studies


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