Past, present and future of the indus water treaty: implications for transboundary water governance challenges and modernization prospects

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT), a water sharing agreement to allocate the water of Indus River System (IRS) between India and Pakistan currently stands at a critical moment of suspension. Moreover, a convergence of diplomatic, hydrological, and climatic challenges raises questions over the future of transboundary water governance in this institutionally complex basin. This paper presents a comprehensive spatio-temporal assessment of contemporary challenges, and prospects for modernization across the treaty rivers using a novel geospatial approach that integrates multiple datasets, indicators, and a structured literature review. Results reveal pronounced spatial and temporal heterogeneity in water availability, shaped by climate change impacts, natural hazards, demographic expansion, and intensifying hydro-political tensions. Within IRS, Chenab and Ravi endure the highest water stress due to their position along the treaty’s physical boundary, Jhelum is heavily influenced by persistent geopolitical contention, and Sutlej is subjected to intense population growth and economic development. Initial disputes over infrastructure development have proliferated with climate change extremes and rising hydro-political tensions increasing turbulency in IRS. The number and frequency of disputes in IRS have also increased and diversified in recent decades, diminishing cooperation that preceded the treaty’s suspension. Although IWT has been used as a diplomatic instrument during periods of tensions, its water-sharing provisions have not been the casus belli of conflict. To sustain cooperation, especially at a point of institutional abeyance, IWT must be modernized with emphasis on joint commission process with an international guarantor, surface and groundwater quantity and quality, disaster prediction, and above all, strengthening co-benefits with shared projects to provide future decades of resilience.