Predicting 6-month mortality for older adults hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction

Background: Older adults with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have higher prevalence of functional impairments, including deficits in cognition, strength, and sensory domains, than their younger counterparts. Objective: To develop and evaluate the prognostic utility of a risk model for 6-month post-AMI mortality in older adults that incorporates information about functional impairments. Design: Prospective cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01755052). Setting: 94 hospitals throughout the United States. Participants: 3006 persons aged 75 years or older who were hospitalized with AMI and discharged alive. Measurements: Functional impairments were assessed during hospitalization via direct measurement (cognition, mobility, muscle strength) or self-report (vision, hearing). Clinical variables associated with mortality in prior risk models were ascertained by chart review. Seventy-two candidate variables were selected for inclusion, and backward selection and Bayesian model averaging were used to derive (n = 2004 participants) and validate (n = 1002 participants) a model for 6-month mortality. Results: Participants' mean age was 81.5 years, 44.4% were women, and 10.5% were nonwhite. There were 266 deaths (8.8%) within 6 months. The final risk model included 15 variables, 4 of which were not included in prior risk models: Hearing impairment, mobility impairment, weight loss, and lower patientreported health status. The model was well calibrated (Hosmer- Lemeshow P > 0.05) and showed good discrimination (area under the curve for the validation cohort = 0.84). Adding functional impairments significantly improved model performance, as evidenced by category-free net reclassification improvement indices of 0.21 (P = 0.008) for hearing impairment and 0.26 (P < 0.001) for mobility impairment. Limitation: The model was not externally validated. Conclusion: A newly developed model for 6-month post-AMI mortality in older adults was well calibrated and had good discriminatory ability. This model may be useful in decision making at hospital discharge.