TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity using outgoing longwave radiation over Africa
AU - Karnauskas, Kristopher B.
AU - Li, Laifang
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2016/7/16
Y1 - 2016/7/16
N2 - Seasonal hurricane activity is a function of the amount of initial disturbances (e.g., easterly waves) and the background environment in which they develop into tropical storms (i.e., the main development region). Focusing on the former, a set of indices based solely upon the meridional structure of satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the African continent are shown to be capable of predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with very high rates of success. Predictions of named storms based on the July OLR field and trained only on the time period prior to the year being predicted yield a success rate of 87%, compared to the success rate of NOAA's August outlooks of 53% over the same period and with the same average uncertainty range (±2). The resulting OLR indices are statistically robust, highly detectable, physically linked to the predictand, and may account for longer-term observed trends.
AB - Seasonal hurricane activity is a function of the amount of initial disturbances (e.g., easterly waves) and the background environment in which they develop into tropical storms (i.e., the main development region). Focusing on the former, a set of indices based solely upon the meridional structure of satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the African continent are shown to be capable of predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with very high rates of success. Predictions of named storms based on the July OLR field and trained only on the time period prior to the year being predicted yield a success rate of 87%, compared to the success rate of NOAA's August outlooks of 53% over the same period and with the same average uncertainty range (±2). The resulting OLR indices are statistically robust, highly detectable, physically linked to the predictand, and may account for longer-term observed trends.
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U2 - 10.1002/2016GL069792
DO - 10.1002/2016GL069792
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84978289394
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 43
SP - 7152
EP - 7159
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 13
ER -