Predicting cumulative risk of disease onset by redistributing weights

Tianle Chen, Yanyuan Ma, Yuanjia Wang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


We propose a simple approach predicting the cumulative risk of disease accommodating predictors with time-varying effects and outcomes subject to censoring. We use a nonparametric function for the coefficient of the time-varying effect and handle censoring through self-consistency equations that redistribute the probability mass of censored outcomes to the right. The computational procedure is extremely convenient and can be implemented by standard software. We prove large sample properties of the proposed estimator and evaluate its finite sample performance through simulation studies. We apply the method to estimate the cumulative risk of developing Huntington's disease (HD) from subjects with huntingtin gene mutation using a large collaborative HD study data and illustrate an inverse relationship between the cumulative risk of HD and the length of cytosine-adenine-guanine repeats in the huntingtin gene.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2427-2443
Number of pages17
JournalStatistics in Medicine
Issue number16
StatePublished - Jul 20 2015

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Epidemiology
  • Statistics and Probability


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