TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting Recidivism for Released State Prison Offenders
T2 - Examining the Influence of Individual and Neighborhood Characteristics and Spatial Contagion on the Likelihood of Reincarceration
AU - Stahler, Gerald J.
AU - Mennis, Jeremy
AU - Belenko, Steven
AU - Welsh, Wayne N.
AU - Hiller, Matthew L.
AU - Zajac, Gary
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) Grant Number 1U01DA025284, Steven Belenko, Principal Investigator, The Pennsylvania Research Center at Temple University.
PY - 2013/6
Y1 - 2013/6
N2 - We examined the influence of individual and neighborhood characteristics and spatial contagion in predicting reincarceration on a sample of 5,354 released Pennsylvania state prisoners. Independent variables included demographic characteristics, offense type, drug involvement, various neighborhood variables (e.g., concentrated disadvantage, residential mobility), and spatial contagion (i.e., proximity to others who become reincarcerated). Using geographic information systems (GIS) and logistic regression modeling, our results showed that the likelihood of reincarceration was increased with male gender, drug involvement, offense type, and living in areas with high rates of recidivism. Older offenders and those convicted of violent or drug offenses were less likely to be reincarcerated. For violent offenders, drug involvement, age, and spatial contagion were particular risk factors for reincarceration. None of the neighborhood environment variables were associated with increased risk of reincarceration. Reentry programs need to particularly address substance abuse issues of ex-offenders as well as take into consideration their residential locations.
AB - We examined the influence of individual and neighborhood characteristics and spatial contagion in predicting reincarceration on a sample of 5,354 released Pennsylvania state prisoners. Independent variables included demographic characteristics, offense type, drug involvement, various neighborhood variables (e.g., concentrated disadvantage, residential mobility), and spatial contagion (i.e., proximity to others who become reincarcerated). Using geographic information systems (GIS) and logistic regression modeling, our results showed that the likelihood of reincarceration was increased with male gender, drug involvement, offense type, and living in areas with high rates of recidivism. Older offenders and those convicted of violent or drug offenses were less likely to be reincarcerated. For violent offenders, drug involvement, age, and spatial contagion were particular risk factors for reincarceration. None of the neighborhood environment variables were associated with increased risk of reincarceration. Reentry programs need to particularly address substance abuse issues of ex-offenders as well as take into consideration their residential locations.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84877111750&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84877111750&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/0093854812469609
DO - 10.1177/0093854812469609
M3 - Article
C2 - 24443612
AN - SCOPUS:84877111750
SN - 0093-8548
VL - 40
SP - 690
EP - 711
JO - Criminal Justice and Behavior
JF - Criminal Justice and Behavior
IS - 6
ER -