TY - JOUR
T1 - Predictors of left atrial appendage thrombus in atrial fibrillation patients undergoing cardioversion
AU - Ruzieh, Mohammed
AU - Bai, Chen
AU - Meisel, Emily
AU - Kramer, Ethan F.
AU - Frechette, Reece R.
AU - Nassereddin, Ali T.
AU - Smoot, Madeline
AU - Edwards, Emily S.
AU - Kurup, Varsha
AU - Naccarelli, Gerald V.
AU - Naik, Dhaval
AU - Kimmel, Stephen E.
AU - Mardini, Mamoun T.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2024.
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - Background: Atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter represent the most prevalent clinically significant cardiac arrhythmias. While the CHA2DS2-VASc score is commonly used to inform anticoagulation therapy decisions for patients with these conditions, its predictive power is limited. Therefore, we sought to improve risk prediction for left atrial appendage thrombus (LAAT), a known risk factor for stroke in these patients. Methods: We developed and validated an explainable machine learning model using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm with 5 × 5 nested cross-validation. The primary outcome was to predict the probability of LAAT in patients with atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter who underwent transesophageal echocardiogram prior to cardioversion. Our algorithm used 37 demographic, comorbid, and transthoracic echocardiographic variables. Results: A total of 795 patients were included in our analysis. LAAT was present in 11.3% of the patients. The average age of patients was 63.3 years and 34.7% were women. Patients with LAAT had significantly lower left ventricular ejection fraction (29.9% vs 43.5%; p < 0.001), lower E’ lateral velocity (5.7 cm vs. 7.9 cm; p < 0.001) and higher E/A ratio (2.6 vs 1.8; p = 0.002). Our machine learning model achieved a high AUC of 0.79, with a high specificity of 0.82, and modest sensitivity of 0.57. Left ventricular ejection fraction was the most important variable in predicting LAAT. Patients were split into 10 buckets based on the percentile of their predicted probability of having thrombus. The lower the percentile (e.g., 10%), the lower the probability of having thrombus. Using a cutoff point of 0.16 which includes 10.0% of the patients, we can rule out thrombus with 100% confidence. Conclusion: Using machine learning, we refined the predictive power of predicting LAAT and explained the model. These results show promise in providing better guidance for anticoagulation therapy and cardioversion in AF and AFL patients.
AB - Background: Atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter represent the most prevalent clinically significant cardiac arrhythmias. While the CHA2DS2-VASc score is commonly used to inform anticoagulation therapy decisions for patients with these conditions, its predictive power is limited. Therefore, we sought to improve risk prediction for left atrial appendage thrombus (LAAT), a known risk factor for stroke in these patients. Methods: We developed and validated an explainable machine learning model using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm with 5 × 5 nested cross-validation. The primary outcome was to predict the probability of LAAT in patients with atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter who underwent transesophageal echocardiogram prior to cardioversion. Our algorithm used 37 demographic, comorbid, and transthoracic echocardiographic variables. Results: A total of 795 patients were included in our analysis. LAAT was present in 11.3% of the patients. The average age of patients was 63.3 years and 34.7% were women. Patients with LAAT had significantly lower left ventricular ejection fraction (29.9% vs 43.5%; p < 0.001), lower E’ lateral velocity (5.7 cm vs. 7.9 cm; p < 0.001) and higher E/A ratio (2.6 vs 1.8; p = 0.002). Our machine learning model achieved a high AUC of 0.79, with a high specificity of 0.82, and modest sensitivity of 0.57. Left ventricular ejection fraction was the most important variable in predicting LAAT. Patients were split into 10 buckets based on the percentile of their predicted probability of having thrombus. The lower the percentile (e.g., 10%), the lower the probability of having thrombus. Using a cutoff point of 0.16 which includes 10.0% of the patients, we can rule out thrombus with 100% confidence. Conclusion: Using machine learning, we refined the predictive power of predicting LAAT and explained the model. These results show promise in providing better guidance for anticoagulation therapy and cardioversion in AF and AFL patients.
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U2 - 10.1007/s10840-024-01868-x
DO - 10.1007/s10840-024-01868-x
M3 - Article
C2 - 38995603
AN - SCOPUS:85198459528
SN - 1383-875X
JO - Journal of Interventional Cardiac Electrophysiology
JF - Journal of Interventional Cardiac Electrophysiology
ER -