TY - GEN
T1 - Probabilistic performance risk evaluation of infrastructure projects
AU - Kim, Byung Cheol
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - Forecasting is a critical function of project control and management. Reliable forecasting enables the project manager to make better informed decisions for timely control actions to prevent or mitigate adverse project outcomes, especially schedule delays and/or cost overruns. Recently, a new probabilistic method for project schedule forecasting was developed based on the Kalman filter method and the earned value method. In this paper, the Kalman filter forecasting method for schedule is extended to formulate a consistent and practical method for project schedule and cost performance forecasting. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate how the new method can be efficiently employed in real projects. Monte Carlo simulation is also conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed method.
AB - Forecasting is a critical function of project control and management. Reliable forecasting enables the project manager to make better informed decisions for timely control actions to prevent or mitigate adverse project outcomes, especially schedule delays and/or cost overruns. Recently, a new probabilistic method for project schedule forecasting was developed based on the Kalman filter method and the earned value method. In this paper, the Kalman filter forecasting method for schedule is extended to formulate a consistent and practical method for project schedule and cost performance forecasting. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate how the new method can be efficiently employed in real projects. Monte Carlo simulation is also conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed method.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79958093938&partnerID=8YFLogxK
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U2 - 10.1061/41170(400)36
DO - 10.1061/41170(400)36
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:79958093938
SN - 9780784411704
T3 - Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Analysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences
SP - 292
EP - 299
BT - Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk
T2 - International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2011 and the International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2011
Y2 - 11 April 2011 through 13 April 2011
ER -