Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

Malcolm John Roberts; Joanne Camp; Jon Seddon; Pier Luigi Vidale; Kevin Hodges; Benoît Vannière; Jenny Mecking; Rein Haarsma; Alessio Bellucci; Enrico Scoccimarro; Louis Philippe Caron; Fabrice Chauvin; Laurent Terray; Sophie Valcke; Marie Pierre Moine; Dian Putrasahan; Christopher D. Roberts; Retish Senan; Colin Zarzycki; Paul Ullrich; Yohei Yamada; Ryo Mizuta; Chihiro Kodama; Dan Fu; Qiuying Zhang; Gokhan Danabasoglu; Nan Rosenbloom; Hong Wang; Lixin Wu

doi:10.1029/2020GL088662

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

Malcolm John Roberts, Joanne Camp, Jon Seddon, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin Hodges, Benoît Vannière, Jenny Mecking, Rein Haarsma, Alessio Bellucci, Enrico Scoccimarro, Louis Philippe Caron, Fabrice Chauvin, Laurent Terray, Sophie Valcke, Marie Pierre Moine, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Colin Zarzycki, Paul UllrichYohei Yamada, Ryo Mizuta, Chihiro Kodama, Dan Fu, Qiuying Zhang, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Nan Rosenbloom, Hong Wang, Lixin Wu

Meteorology and Atmospheric Science

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145 Scopus citations

Abstract

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	e2020GL088662
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	47
Issue number	14
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088662
State	Published - Jul 28 2020

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Geophysics
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

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10.1029/2020GL088662

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Roberts, M. J., Camp, J., Seddon, J., Vidale, P. L., Hodges, K., Vannière, B., Mecking, J., Haarsma, R., Bellucci, A., Scoccimarro, E., Caron, L. P., Chauvin, F., Terray, L., Valcke, S., Moine, M. P., Putrasahan, D., Roberts, C. D., Senan, R., Zarzycki, C., ... Wu, L. (2020). Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(14), Article e2020GL088662. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088662

@article{c3a306d500ee429f9e8800835603d6ca,

title = "Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble",

abstract = "Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.",

author = "Roberts, {Malcolm John} and Joanne Camp and Jon Seddon and Vidale, {Pier Luigi} and Kevin Hodges and Beno{\^i}t Vanni{\`e}re and Jenny Mecking and Rein Haarsma and Alessio Bellucci and Enrico Scoccimarro and Caron, {Louis Philippe} and Fabrice Chauvin and Laurent Terray and Sophie Valcke and Moine, {Marie Pierre} and Dian Putrasahan and Roberts, {Christopher D.} and Retish Senan and Colin Zarzycki and Paul Ullrich and Yohei Yamada and Ryo Mizuta and Chihiro Kodama and Dan Fu and Qiuying Zhang and Gokhan Danabasoglu and Nan Rosenbloom and Hong Wang and Lixin Wu",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2020. Crown copyright.",

year = "2020",

month = jul,

day = "28",

doi = "10.1029/2020GL088662",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "47",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

issn = "0094-8276",

publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Inc.",

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Roberts, MJ, Camp, J, Seddon, J, Vidale, PL, Hodges, K, Vannière, B, Mecking, J, Haarsma, R, Bellucci, A, Scoccimarro, E, Caron, LP, Chauvin, F, Terray, L, Valcke, S, Moine, MP, Putrasahan, D, Roberts, CD, Senan, R, Zarzycki, C, Ullrich, P, Yamada, Y, Mizuta, R, Kodama, C, Fu, D, Zhang, Q, Danabasoglu, G, Rosenbloom, N, Wang, H & Wu, L 2020, 'Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 47, no. 14, e2020GL088662. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088662

TY - JOUR

T1 - Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

AU - Roberts, Malcolm John

AU - Camp, Joanne

AU - Seddon, Jon

AU - Vidale, Pier Luigi

AU - Hodges, Kevin

AU - Vannière, Benoît

AU - Mecking, Jenny

AU - Haarsma, Rein

AU - Bellucci, Alessio

AU - Scoccimarro, Enrico

AU - Caron, Louis Philippe

AU - Chauvin, Fabrice

AU - Terray, Laurent

AU - Valcke, Sophie

AU - Moine, Marie Pierre

AU - Putrasahan, Dian

AU - Roberts, Christopher D.

AU - Senan, Retish

AU - Zarzycki, Colin

AU - Ullrich, Paul

AU - Yamada, Yohei

AU - Mizuta, Ryo

AU - Kodama, Chihiro

AU - Fu, Dan

AU - Zhang, Qiuying

AU - Danabasoglu, Gokhan

AU - Rosenbloom, Nan

AU - Wang, Hong

AU - Wu, Lixin

PY - 2020/7/28

Y1 - 2020/7/28

N2 - Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

AB - Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

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U2 - 10.1029/2020GL088662

DO - 10.1029/2020GL088662

M3 - Article

C2 - 32999514

AN - SCOPUS:85088592460

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 47

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 14

M1 - e2020GL088662

ER -

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

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