Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

Malcolm John Roberts, Joanne Camp, Jon Seddon, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin Hodges, Benoît Vannière, Jenny Mecking, Rein Haarsma, Alessio Bellucci, Enrico Scoccimarro, Louis Philippe Caron, Fabrice Chauvin, Laurent Terray, Sophie Valcke, Marie Pierre Moine, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Colin Zarzycki, Paul UllrichYohei Yamada, Ryo Mizuta, Chihiro Kodama, Dan Fu, Qiuying Zhang, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Nan Rosenbloom, Hong Wang, Lixin Wu

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119 Scopus citations


Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere2020GL088662
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Issue number14
StatePublished - Jul 28 2020

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • General Earth and Planetary Sciences


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