Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

David A.W. Miller, Evan H.Campbell Grant, Erin Muths, Staci M. Amburgey, Michael J. Adams, Maxwell B. Joseph, J. Hardin Waddle, Pieter T.J. Johnson, Maureen E. Ryan, Benedikt R. Schmidt, Daniel L. Calhoun, Courtney L. Davis, Robert N. Fisher, David M. Green, Blake R. Hossack, Tracy A.G. Rittenhouse, Susan C. Walls, Larissa L. Bailey, Sam S. Cruickshank, Gary M. FellersThomas A. Gorman, Carola A. Haas, Ward Hughson, David S. Pilliod, Steven J. Price, Andrew M. Ray, Walt Sadinski, Daniel Saenz, William J. Barichivich, Adrianne Brand, Cheryl S. Brehme, Rosi Dagit, Katy S. Delaney, Brad M. Glorioso, Lee B. Kats, Patrick M. Kleeman, Christopher A. Pearl, Carlton J. Rochester, Seth P.D. Riley, Mark Roth, Brent H. Sigafus

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

82 Scopus citations


Changing climate will impact species’ ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number3926
JournalNature communications
Issue number1
StatePublished - Dec 1 2018

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General Physics and Astronomy
  • General Chemistry
  • General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology


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