TY - JOUR
T1 - Regional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change
AU - Sharma, Sanjib
AU - Gomez, Michael
AU - Keller, Klaus
AU - Nicholas, Robert E.
AU - Mejia, Alfonso
N1 - Funding Information:
Acknowledgments. This work was supported through the Penn State Initiative for Resilient Communities (PSIRC) by a Strategic Plan seed grant from the Penn State Office of the Provost, with co-support from the Center for Climate Risk Management (CLIMA), the Rock Ethics Institute, Penn State Law, the Hamer Center for Community Design, and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration through the Mid-Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (MARISA) program under NOAA Grant NA16OAR4310179. All errors and opinions are from the authors and do not reflect the funding agencies. We are grateful to Lisa Iulo, James Ross-Golin, Lara Fowler, Skip Wishbone, and Irene Schaperdoth for their helpful feedback and advice. The authors declare no competing financial or nonfinancial interests. This is academic research and not designed to be used in actual decision-making. The code and data used for this analysis is available at GitHub repository: https://github.com/svs6308/ Flood-Hazard-Projection, under the GNU general public open source license. The results, data, software tools, and other resources related to this work are provided as-is without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied. In no event shall the authors or copyright holders be liable for any claim, damages, or other liability in connection with the use of these resources.
Funding Information:
This work was supported through the Penn State Initiative for Resilient Communities (PSIRC) by a Strategic Plan seed grant from the Penn State Office of the Provost, with co-support from the Center for Climate Risk Management (CLIMA), the Rock Ethics Institute, Penn State Law, the Hamer Center for Community Design, and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration through the Mid-Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (MARISA) program under NOAA Grant NA16OAR4310179. All errors and opinions are from the authors and do not reflect the funding agencies. We are grateful to Lisa Iulo, James Ross-Golin, Lara Fowler, Skip Wishbone, and Irene Schaperdoth for their helpful feedback and advice. The authors declare no competing financial or nonfinancial interests. This is academic research and not designed to be used in actual decision-making. The code and data used for this analysis is available at GitHub repository: https://github.com/svs6308/ Flood-Hazard-Projection, under the GNU general public open source license. The results, data, software tools, and other resources related to this work are provided as-is without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied. In no event shall the authors or copyright holders be liable for any claim, damages, or other liability in connection with the use of these resources.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 American Meteorological Society.
PY - 2021/9/1
Y1 - 2021/9/1
N2 - Flood-related risks to people and property are expected to increase in the future due to environmental and demographic changes. It is important to quantify and effectively communicate flood hazards and exposure to inform the design and implementation of flood risk management strategies. Here we develop an integrated modeling framework to assess projected changes in regional riverine flood inundation risks. The framework samples climate model outputs to force a hydrologic model and generate streamflow projections. Together with a statistical and hydraulic model, we use the projected streamflow to map the uncertainty of flood inundation projections for extreme flood events. We implement the framework for rivers across the state of Pennsylvania, United States. Our projections suggest that flood hazards and exposure across Pennsylvania are overall increasing with future climate change. Specific regions, including the main stem Susquehanna River, lower portion of the Allegheny basin, and central portion of Delaware River basin, demonstrate higher flood inundation risks. In our analysis, the climate uncertainty dominates the overall uncertainty surrounding the flood inundation projection chain. The combined hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties can account for as much as 37% of the total uncertainty. We discuss how this framework can provide regional and dynamic flood-risk assessments and help to inform the design of risk-management strategies.
AB - Flood-related risks to people and property are expected to increase in the future due to environmental and demographic changes. It is important to quantify and effectively communicate flood hazards and exposure to inform the design and implementation of flood risk management strategies. Here we develop an integrated modeling framework to assess projected changes in regional riverine flood inundation risks. The framework samples climate model outputs to force a hydrologic model and generate streamflow projections. Together with a statistical and hydraulic model, we use the projected streamflow to map the uncertainty of flood inundation projections for extreme flood events. We implement the framework for rivers across the state of Pennsylvania, United States. Our projections suggest that flood hazards and exposure across Pennsylvania are overall increasing with future climate change. Specific regions, including the main stem Susquehanna River, lower portion of the Allegheny basin, and central portion of Delaware River basin, demonstrate higher flood inundation risks. In our analysis, the climate uncertainty dominates the overall uncertainty surrounding the flood inundation projection chain. The combined hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties can account for as much as 37% of the total uncertainty. We discuss how this framework can provide regional and dynamic flood-risk assessments and help to inform the design of risk-management strategies.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85122777536&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85122777536&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1175/JHM-D-20-0238.1
DO - 10.1175/JHM-D-20-0238.1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85122777536
SN - 1525-755X
VL - 22
SP - 2259
EP - 2274
JO - Journal of Hydrometeorology
JF - Journal of Hydrometeorology
IS - 9
ER -
