@inproceedings{b9de22792a814e9290ec0290a9411618,
title = "Regional Wind Power Ramp Forecasting through Multinomial Logistic Regression",
abstract = "Wind power ramps are the abrupt yet significant change in wind power productions. The information on the ordinal levels of impending wind power ramp could help power system operator to arm operation or ramping reserves in a timely manner. This paper presents novel approaches for regional wind power ramp level forecasting using real-time meso-scale wind speed measurements. Motivated by the correlation of the meso-scale wind speed measurements with the regional wind power data, the proposed approach utilizes multinomial logistic regression for wind power ramp forecasting. An approach that combines the probabilistic output of individual regressive models in a weighted manner is proposed, with the weights calculated by minimizing the Brier skill score of the combined model. The proposed methods are tested by using real-world data, and is compared with benchmark methods. The results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.",
author = "Xiaomei Chen and Jie Zhao and Miao He",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 IEEE.; 2020 IEEE Green Technologies Conference, GreenTech 2020 ; Conference date: 01-04-2020 Through 03-04-2020",
year = "2020",
month = apr,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1109/GreenTech46478.2020.9289816",
language = "English (US)",
series = "IEEE Green Technologies Conference",
publisher = "IEEE Computer Society",
pages = "36--41",
editor = "Tiako, {Pierre F.} and Robert Scolli and Tom Jobe",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 2020 IEEE Green Technologies Conference, GreenTech 2020",
address = "United States",
}