Research to estimate and manage carrying capacity of a tourist attraction: A study of Alcatraz Island

Carrying capacity has been a long-standing issue in management of parks, outdoor recreation and tourism. Contemporary carrying capacity frameworks rely on formulation of indicators and standards of quality to define and manage carrying capacity. This paper describes a programme of research to support estimation and management of carrying capacity of Alcatraz Island, an historic site within Golden Gate National Recreation Area, California, USA, and a heavily visited tourist attraction. Research included: (1) a survey of visitors to Alcatraz Island to identify indicators and standards of quality for the visitor experience; and (2) development of a computer simulation model of visitor use to estimate maximum daily use levels without violating standards of quality. Study findings are used to estimate a range of carrying capacities for the prison cellhouse and for the island as a whole.