Revered today, loved tomorrow: Expert creativity ratings predict popularity of architects' works 50 years later

Beginning in the 1950s, the Institute of Personality Assessment and Research (IPAR) began a program of research to study the psychology of effectively functioning persons. Among the most influential series of studies conducted by IPAR were the assessments of highly creative architects in 1957-1961, a sample that included some of the most eminent architects of the 20th century such as Eero Saarinen, Louis I. Kahn, I. M. Pei, and Philip C. Johnson. In turn, in 2006-2007, the American Institute of Architects conducted a survey to identify America's favorite architecture, first among its 2,448 members and subsequently among 2,214 members of the general public. Creativity ratings of the architects (N = 40) by (a) journal editorial board members, (b) expert judges, and (c) the architects themselves collected in 1957-1961 predicted the popularity of their works 50 years later. Our results suggest that in the domain of architecture, expert assessments of individual-level creativity predict future product-level popularity.